USDC's Unstoppable Quarter: Circle Shares Surge as Q4 Results Shatter Wall Street Estimates

In the nine months since Circle Internet Group made its landmark debut on the New York Stock Exchange — raising USD 1.05 billion at a USD 31 IPO price that the market immediately revalued by 167% on day one — the company has been under relentless analytical scrutiny over one central question: can it justify its valuation with earnings that match its narrative? On February 25, 2026, Circle answered that question with one of the most decisive earnings beats in the short history of publicly listed crypto-native companies. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenue and reserve income of USD 770 million — up 77% from the same quarter in 2024 — crushed analyst consensus of USD 745 to 747 million. Adjusted earnings per share of USD 0.43 demolished the USD 0.35 consensus. Net income from continuing operations reached USD 133 million, a turnaround of USD 129 million year-over-year. Shares jumped approximately 12% in pre-market trading, with some reports citing intraday moves approaching 14%, as institutional investors digested a print that validated everything the USDC bull thesis has argued since the GENIUS Act was passed.

The Numbers That Moved the Market

The headline figures from Circle's Q4 2025 earnings release, filed with the SEC and announced via BusinessWire on February 25, 2026, represent the clearest evidence yet that stablecoin issuance has matured into a high-margin, scalable financial services business. USDC in circulation reached USD 75.3 billion at year end, a 72% year-over-year increase from approximately USD 43.8 billion at the end of Q4 2024. USDC minted during the quarter rose 107% to USD 82.4 billion — a figure that reflects both the growth in underlying circulation and the velocity of issuance and redemption activity by institutional and retail users. Most dramatically, USDC on-chain transaction volume in Q4 2025 reached USD 11.9 trillion, a staggering 247% increase year-over-year that underscores how deeply the stablecoin has embedded itself into blockchain-based commerce, DeFi protocols, cross-border settlement and digital payments infrastructure globally.

The profitability metrics were equally compelling. Adjusted EBITDA of USD 167 million in Q4 grew 412% year-over-year, a figure that signals the operating leverage inherent in Circle's business model becoming visibly real at scale. The RLDC (Reserve and Liquidity-Driven Contribution) margin expanded by 1,004 basis points to 40% in the quarter, reflecting the dual tailwind of higher USDC in circulation and sustained elevated short-term Treasury yields that power the reserve income engine underpinning Circle's economics. For the full fiscal year 2025, Circle reported total revenue and reserve income of USD 2.7 billion, a 64% increase over 2024, with full-year Adjusted EBITDA of USD 582 million — more than double the prior year's figure.

The One Cloud: Net Loss and Why It Does Not Tell the Real Story

Circle's full-year 2025 net loss from continuing operations of USD 70 million, compared to net income of USD 157 million in 2024, initially appears to contradict the earnings beat narrative. The context, however, eliminates the concern almost entirely. The loss was driven overwhelmingly by USD 424 million in stock-based compensation expense triggered by vesting conditions associated with Circle's June 2025 IPO — a one-time, non-cash accounting charge that will not recur in fiscal 2026. Strip that IPO-related compensation out and the underlying business generated strongly positive earnings across the full year, consistent with the Q4 net income of USD 133 million. Adjusted EBITDA of USD 582 million for the full year — the metric that reflects the actual cash-generative capacity of the operating business — grew 104% and paints the accurate picture: Circle exited 2025 as a rapidly scaling, highly profitable business by any operational measure.

"Since our IPO and the passage of the GENIUS Act, we have seen a dramatic increase in engagement from major financial institutions across banking, payments, and capital markets. There is an incredible interest in collaborating with us, including from notable firms that may be considering launching their own stablecoins."

— Jeremy Allaire, Chief Executive Officer, Circle Internet Group — as reported by CNBC, August 2025

The GENIUS Act Effect: Regulation as Circle's Competitive Moat

No analysis of Circle's Q4 performance is complete without accounting for the legislative environment that has accelerated its institutional adoption curve. The GENIUS Act — the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act — was passed into law in 2025, establishing the first comprehensive federal licensing and supervisory framework for USD-backed payment stablecoin issuers. Circle, which had been operating under a patchwork of state money transmission licenses, immediately positioned itself as the most GENIUS Act-compliant stablecoin issuer in the market, publishing its detailed regulatory readiness framework at circle.com and working directly with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency on the implementation of the new federal charter structure.

The Act's requirements — 1:1 reserve backing with high-quality liquid assets, regular third-party audits, transparent redemption mechanisms and AML compliance — are standards Circle already met before the legislation was enacted. For competitors less prepared for regulatory compliance, these requirements represent barriers to entry. For Circle, they represent a moat that deepens with every new bank, fintech or enterprise that decides to build payments infrastructure on regulated stablecoins rather than informal alternatives. Circle's own blog post on GENIUS Act readiness states explicitly that the legislation "cements US leadership in global digital payments" and establishes a "gold standard" for stablecoin issuance — language that, combined with Circle's Q4 metrics, is now backed by verifiable financial performance rather than forward-looking aspiration.

USDC vs. Tether: The Regulatory Gap Is Becoming a Market Gap

Circle's 72% growth in USDC circulation in 2025 compared to Tether's 36% growth in USDT — which ended the year at USD 186.6 billion according to market data compiled by CoinDesk — represents the second consecutive year in which USDC has outpaced USDT's growth rate on a percentage basis. USDT remains the dominant stablecoin in absolute terms, with a market cap more than twice USDC's, and Tether's global retail and emerging-market penetration continues to give it a structural volume advantage in high-frequency, low-compliance consumer contexts. However, the institutional adoption story increasingly favors Circle. Major payment networks, banking partners, and regulated financial infrastructure providers choosing between stablecoin integrations in 2025 and 2026 are selecting USDC at accelerating rates, driven by the compliance certainty the GENIUS Act framework provides.

USDC minted rising 107% year-over-year to USD 82.4 billion in Q4 alone is particularly telling. This figure — distinct from the circulating supply — reflects the raw volume of new USDC being created by institutional and corporate users who are converting fiat into USDC for payments, settlements, DeFi deployments and reserve management purposes. A 107% minting growth rate in a single quarter, at a USD 75 billion circulation base, indicates demand acceleration rather than demand saturation — the opposite of what critics of the USDC growth narrative have predicted. The on-chain transaction volume figure of USD 11.9 trillion in Q4 alone places USDC among the highest-volume settlement networks in global finance, rivaling the throughput of major national ACH systems.

FY2026 Guidance: What Circle Is Projecting

Circle's management provided fiscal year 2026 guidance alongside the Q4 results that signals continued confidence in the growth trajectory, with deliberate conservatism on margin assumptions. The company guided for other revenue of USD 150 million to USD 170 million and adjusted operating expenses of USD 570 million to USD 585 million for the full year 2026. The RLDC margin guidance of 38% to 40% for the full year reflects the company's expectation that distribution costs — primarily the revenue-sharing arrangement with Coinbase, Circle's largest USDC distribution partner — will continue to be a managed variable in the gross margin calculation. Most significantly, Circle provided multi-year USDC circulation guidance targeting a 40% compound annual growth rate through the market cycle — a forward commitment that, if met, would put USDC circulation above USD 200 billion within three years and make Circle one of the largest financial institutions in the digital economy by assets under management.

The Coinbase Distribution Question: Circle's Largest Structural Risk

One structural complexity within Circle's business model that the Q4 beat cannot entirely obscure is its revenue-sharing relationship with Coinbase. Coinbase serves as USDC's primary distribution network, and in exchange, Circle shares a portion of the reserve income generated by USDC holdings on Coinbase's platform. As USDC grows, the absolute dollar amount of this distribution cost grows proportionally, creating a natural margin ceiling that multiple analysts — including Compass Point's Ed Engel — have flagged as a concern for long-term profitability expansion. Engel noted in mid-2025 that Circle's projected gross profit margin trajectory for the second half of the year suggested distribution costs were rising faster than topline growth in certain quarters.

Circle has responded to this concern by aggressively expanding its direct distribution partnerships beyond Coinbase — signing integrations with Fiserv, multiple banking partners and payment platforms to diversify the distribution mix and reduce its proportional dependence on any single partner. The 107% minting growth in Q4 suggests that non-Coinbase distribution channels are scaling rapidly, which would structurally improve the revenue-sharing economics over time. The multi-year 40% CAGR guidance for USDC circulation implies that Circle's management believes the distribution expansion strategy is working and that margin improvement alongside volume growth is achievable.

What the Q4 Beat Signals for the Broader Stablecoin Sector

Circle's Q4 performance matters well beyond CRCL shareholders. It is the most comprehensive public financial data point ever released by a regulated stablecoin issuer, and it establishes the financial architecture of the stablecoin business model with a granularity that institutional investors, regulators and competitors can now analyze in detail. The results confirm that reserve income — interest earned on the Treasury-backed reserves held against USDC in circulation — is the dominant revenue driver, representing the vast majority of Circle's USD 2.7 billion in full-year 2025 revenue. The business is therefore fundamentally a high-grade money market fund with a blockchain distribution channel: the more USDC circulates, the more Treasuries sit in reserve, the more interest accrues, and the more revenue flows to Circle.

Editorial Perspective

Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) reported Q4 2025 earnings on February 25, 2026 that comprehensively beat consensus on every key metric. Revenue of USD 770 million grew 77% year-over-year, surpassing Bloomberg analyst consensus of USD 747 million. Adjusted EPS of USD 0.43 beat the USD 0.35 estimate. Net income from continuing operations was USD 133 million — a USD 129 million improvement year-over-year. Full-year 2025 revenue reached USD 2.7 billion, up 64%, with Adjusted EBITDA of USD 582 million up 104%. USDC in circulation reached USD 75.3 billion, up 72%, with Q4 on-chain transaction volume of USD 11.9 trillion up 247%. The full-year net loss of USD 70 million was entirely explained by USD 424 million in one-time IPO-related stock compensation — the underlying operating business was strongly profitable. Shares rose approximately 12% in pre-market trading. FY2026 guidance targets 40% CAGR for USDC circulation and RLDC margins of 38% to 40%. All figures are sourced from Circle's official earnings press release via BusinessWire, February 25, 2026, and corroborated by Bloomberg, Investing.com and MarketBeat.

These numbers deserve to be read carefully by anyone who still views stablecoins as a speculative crypto niche. USD 11.9 trillion in on-chain USDC transaction volume in a single quarter. USD 2.7 billion in annual revenue from an asset that did not exist ten years ago. Adjusted EBITDA growth of 104% for the full year. Circle has crossed a threshold with this earnings report — it is no longer a crypto startup with a compelling thesis. It is a financial infrastructure company with demonstrated unit economics, a legislative moat in the GENIUS Act framework, and a growth trajectory that analysts at Seaport Research are projecting toward a USD 57 billion market capitalization. At Ethers News, we believe the most important takeaway from this print is not the stock price movement — it is what the USD 11.9 trillion quarterly transaction volume says about stablecoin adoption velocity. That number puts USDC in the same conversation as Fedwire, CHIPS and Swift for settlement throughput. When regulated digital dollars are processing near-twelve-trillion dollars in quarterly on-chain volume and growing at 247%, the debate about whether stablecoins are real financial infrastructure is definitively over. Circle just closed that argument with a quarterly earnings release.

Key Sources and References

• Circle Official Earnings Press Release — BusinessWire, February 25, 2026: businesswire.com — Primary source for all Q4 2025 financial figures: revenue, EPS, EBITDA, USDC circulation, minting volume, transaction volume

• Bloomberg — Circle Earnings Coverage, February 25, 2026: bloomberg.com — Independent corroboration of analyst consensus figures and pre-market share movement

• Investing.com — Circle Q4 Earnings Analysis: investing.com — FY2026 guidance details: RLDC margin 38–40%, 40% USDC CAGR target

• Circle Investor Relations — NYSE: CRCL: investor.circle.com — Official Circle investor relations portal, SEC filings, earnings announcements

• Circle — GENIUS Act Compliance Framework: circle.com/genius-act — Circle's official GENIUS Act readiness documentation and stablecoin compliance architecture

• CNBC — Circle Q2 2025 Earnings and Jeremy Allaire Interview: cnbc.com — Source for Jeremy Allaire quote on GENIUS Act institutional engagement